Every five years, the president and parliament elections are held on the same day. This year’s elections were moved up from their original date of June 18 to May 14. The Turkish election will have a major impact, it’s just a matter of time until we found out what is the future outlook for Turkish lira.
This election is expected to be the toughest test of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan 20 year leadership run. In this article we will cover this event and find out how the market can be affected based on the result of the presidency pool.Â
Turkish election date
Every five years, both the presidential and legislative elections take place on the same day. The elections in this year were originally set for June 18, but they were moved up to May 14.Â
How does the Turkish electoral process work?
Turkey switched to a presidential system in July 2018 from a parliamentary one. In the new system, the position of prime minister has been eliminated and people elect the president directly.
For a presidential contender to win, they must receive more than 50% of the vote. The top two contenders will face battle in a run-off election two weeks later, albeit, if nobody receives more than 50% of the vote.
Using a proportional representation system, voters will elect 600 members of the Grand National Assembly, as the Turkish parliament is known, by selecting a party list in their district.
Turkish election result: What is the future outlook for turkish lira?
1.Recep Tayyip Erdogan candidate for Presidency 2023
In the lead-up to the nation’s historic elections this weekend, the Turkish lira is already experiencing some of the most volatile conditions across global currency markets, with speculators anticipating a certain collapse if incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains his presidency.
Already USDTRY is sitting close to its all-time high. In the last 18 months, Turkey’s economy struggle for over 2 years, which has declined its popularity. If he is elected again, you can expect just like other traders to see the Turkish lira losing more value.
Source:Â khosrooparviz
Many traders believe that Turkey has no chance to even hold its value at this current level.
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The currency that could be controlled at 18.46 dollars and was not controlled can easily reach the border between 32 and 34 dollars based on Fibonacci and a large and beautiful economy like Turkey will undergo transformation and destruction.
2. Kemal Kilicdaroglu
A significant opponent of Erdogan is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is the nominee for the six opposition parties in the Nation Alliance. He is criticized for being overly Western-focused even though he calls himself a “democrat” and is well recognized for his anti-corruption stance. Kilicdaroglu has been the head of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) for more than ten years despite electoral failures.Â
His prior defeats, according to his detractors, show that he would be unfit to succeed Erdogan as president. But Meral Aksener, the head of the nationalist Iyi Party, altered her mind about Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, which helped his alliance win support.
If investors view Kilicdaroglu’s self-description as a “democrat” and his rhetoric against corruption as signs of stability and transparency, these attributes could boost market sentiment. The Turkish lira could gain strength if he implements fundamental changes, lessens political unpredictability, and enhances economic stability. The exchange rate between the USD and TRY could drop as a result of this scenario.
Sinan Ogan
Ogan is a coalition figure who represents three parties and is the candidate of the nationalist Ancestral Alliance (ATA). He has experience in both academics and the growth of international finance. Ogan was formerly a member of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a coalition partner of President Erdogan’s AK Party, but he was removed from the group in 2015 as a result of internal dissent.Â
Opponents assert that Ogan supports xenophobic and far-right ideologies, particularly with regard to Syrian refugees. His commitment to resettling migrants and support for the union of Turkic republics are commendable.
Investors and global markets may be uncertain as a result of Ogan’s nationalist and far-right ideas. Due to a possible decline in market confidence, the Turkish lira (TRY) may weaken and the USD/TRY exchange rate may rise.
Is USDTRY set for a new rally?
n the lead-up to the nation’s historic elections this weekend, the Turkish lira is already experiencing some of the most volatile conditions across global currency markets, with speculators anticipating a certain collapse if incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains his presidency.
Market observers predict that the Turkish lira, which is presently trading at record lows of 19.56 against the US dollar, will continue to decline.
The founder of advisory firm Cribstone Strategic Macro, Mike Harris, told CNBC that it is “highly likely” that the Turkish currency will collapse in the event that Erdogan wins the election.
“Ultimately, the lack of investment confidence will mean that the Turkish Lira will probably be among the worst performing currencies in the world for some time,” he said.
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